В настоящее время на iPad приходится около 75% американского рынка планшетов. При этом 70% таких устройств Apple поставляется именно в США. Это означает, что планшетный бизнес сильно привязан к американскому рынку.
В свою очередь, лишь 15% производимых Samsung планшетов поступает на американский рынок, объём которого оценивается в 40.000.000 штук в год или 27% от мирового значения. Примерно 80% всех планшетов в мире производится в Китае.
По мнению аналитиков, если пошлины повлияют на планшетный бизнес Apple, из-за чего компании, например, придётся повысить цены, то американцы могут отдать предпочтение гаджетам Samsung.
Большинство iPad изготавливаются либо Foxconn Electronics (Hon Hai Precision Industry), либо Compal Electronics на своих производственных площадках в Цзянсу и Чэнду в Китае. Лишь один завод, занятый производством планшетов находится за пределами КНР - предприятие Foxconn в Сан-Паулу (Бразилия).
Между тем, приглашённый эксперт блога Samsung World Николай Изнов считает, что расслабляться Samsung не следует:
"Учитывая импульсивное поведение Трампа, сложно сказать как долго продлятся американские санкции в отношении Китая. Нынешний президент США, бывший бизнесмен, использует известную тактику "наезд-откат", когда оппонент сначала подвергается запугиванию, а потом ему предлагают "договориться по хорошему". Но в нынешней политике это далеко не всегда срабатывает, особенно в отношениях с такими странами как Россия или Китай. Давление должно быть очень длительным и болезненным, а не PR-акцией на пару недель или месяцев.
Конечно, целый ряд ограничений на деятельность Huawei в США так или иначе будет наложен, но если Трамп позволит полностью восстановить работу этой компании в остальном мире, никакого стратегического преимущества Америка не получит. Таким образом, Huawei, де-факто являющаяся госкомпанией с неограниченным бюджетом будет и дальше захватывать мировой рынок коммуникаций, что в перспективе означает тотальное поражение западного альянса.
Вы даже не представляете, какие колоссальные средства сейчас тратит Китай на продвижение лояльных репортажей о деятельности его компаний, особенно упомянутой Huawei. В одной только России скуплены все так называемые "ведущие аналитики", известные видеоблоггеры и техноресурсы типа ixbt, ежедневно внушающие своей пастве агитку под названием "Какой классный Huawei и какой подлый дядя Сэм". Та же картина наблюдается на Западе, где проплаченные репортажи публикует даже глобальный новостной телеканал CNN. Как говорится, деньги не пахнут, когда дело касается рекламных доходов, тем более что интересы Huawei и CNN чудесным образом совпали в их антитрамповской позиции.
Поэтому Samsung надо иметь ввиду, что если "передышка" и будет, то, скорее всего, она не будет очень существенной из-за торговой войны двух крупнейших экономик мира."
Samsung tablet business to benefit from US-China trade tensions
Samsung Electronics is expected to benefit from the US placing a 25% tariff on tablets imported from China as almost all of the Korea-based vendor's tablet manufacturing is done at its plants in Vietnam and only around 1% is supplied by its plants in China. Its largest competitor Apple is expected to see its tablet business deeply affected by the extra tariffs.
At the moment, Apple's iPads account for 75% of the US tablet market, while 70% of Apple's tablets are shipped to the US, which means Apple's tablets and the US market heavily rely on each other, according to Digitimes Research's findings
Since most iPads are manufactured by either Foxconn Electronics (Hon Hai Precision Industry) or Compal Electronics at their production bases in China's Jiangsu, Shenzhen and Chengdu and the only non-China manufacturing site is Foxconn's plants in Sao Paulo, Brazil, the US-based vendor is expected to be undermined the most by the tax.
Although Foxconn and Compal as well as Apple's other partners such as Quanta Computer and Pegatron have other production lines outside of China, these facilities will still require some time to be certified by Apple. Even if Apple's goal is to move all tablet production out of China, its shipments in the short terms will still be affected by the tariffs.
Demand from the US only commands about 15% of Samsung's overall tablet shipments. But if Apple's iPad shipments to the US are impacted by the tariffs, consumers may turn to devices from Samsung.
At the moment, tablet demand from the US is around 40 million units a year, accounting for 27% of worldwide shipments. However, nearly 80% of worldwide tablet shipments are produced in China.
The worldwide top-4 tablet brands were Apple, Huawei, Samsung and Amazon in the first quarter of 2019.
Huawei is mainly outsourcing its tablet production to local OEMs Longcheer and Huaqin, while some tablets are manufactured in house. Although all of Huawei's tablets are made in China, its shipments to the US are very limited and therefore will not see much of an impact by the tariff.
In the past few years, Amazon has shifted its tablet orders from Taiwan-based Compal to China-based Huaqin. However, both Compal and Huaqin conduct their tablet production in China.
Amazon is currently the third-largest brand in the US tablet market with a 6.5% share. With over 20% of Amazon's tablet shipments delivered to the US, the US-based vendor is likely to be seriously undermined by the tariff.
For China's white-box tablet industry, as most of its shipments are shipped to emerging markets including the Middle East, Southeast Asia and Latin America, they will not be affected much by the US-China trade tensions. However, some US-based retailers such as Walmart, are likely to stop placing orders with white-box players.
Demand for tablets has been dropping as smartphones' screen sizes have grown bigger. Because of reduced demand, tablets' ASP has also been dipping with most tablets purchased for use by elderly consumers, children or education purposes.
Since consumers of entry-level to mid-range tablets are mostly price-oriented, a 25% tariff is likely to increase end market prices and will further weaken worldwide demand for tablets.
The impact will be much smaller on high-end tablets as these devices are mainly procured by specific consumer groups that are not sensitive to pricing.
However, the limited shipments of high-end tablets are unlikely to help offset the sales decline from the mid-range to entry-level devices. Apple's iPad Pro and Microsoft's Surface series high-end tablets are expected to see small impacts from the trade tensions, while Amazon, which offers mostly entry-level products, will take a more serious hit.
Meanwhile, the invited expert of the information blog Samsung World Nikolay Iznov believes that the South Korean technogiant cannot be relaxed:
"Given Trump’s impulsive behavior, it’s hard to say how long the US sanctions against China will last. The current president of the United States, a former businessman, uses a well-known tactic of "cavalry attack", when the opponent is first subjected to psychological pressure, and then he is offered to "make a good bargain." But in the current policy this does not always work, especially in relations with countries such as Russia or China. The pressure should be very long and painful, and not a PR action for a two of weeks or months.
Of course, a number of restrictions on Huawei’s activities in the United States will be imposed one way or another, but if Trump allows the chinese company to fully recover in the rest of the world, America will not get any strategic advantage. Thus, Huawei, the de facto state-owned company with an unlimited budget, will continue to seize the global communications market, which in the future means a total defeat for the Western alliance.
You have no idea what huge amounts of money China is currently spending on promoting loyal reports on the activities of its companies, especially the aforementioned Huawei.
For example, in Russia, Chinese agents have bought many so-called “leading IT analysts”, well-known video bloggers and technology resources like ixbt. Every day, these people broadcast a false agitation called "What a cool Huawei and what a sneaky uncle Sam."
The same picture is observed in the West, where even the global news channel CNN publishes the reports paid by the Chinese. As the saying goes, money doesn't smell when it comes to advertising revenue. Especially when you consider that the interests of Huawei and CNN miraculously coincided in their anti-Trump position.
Therefore, Samsung should be borne in mind that if the US restricts Huawei’s activities, then most likely it will not be for long."
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